…that’s what the Conference Board predicts. It’s a business oriented think tank. here’s the key part of today’s release.
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)â„¢ continued its decline in September, suggesting even more losses to come in the labor market. The index fell in September to 108.4, down 0.8 percent from the August revised figure of 109.3, and down almost 10 percent from a year ago.
“The deterioration in the Employment Trends Index has become very pronounced, suggesting that the unemployment rate may very well exceed 7 percent as early as the second quarter of 2009,” said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The persistent slackening in labor market conditions, worsened by the financial crisis, has reached a level that in the past led to significantly slower wage growth across most industries.”
The 14-month fall in the Employment Trends Index (ETI)â„¢ is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons.
I wonder if this prediction is too low considering the drop in the price of oil, other commodities, and stock markets around the world.
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