So says a report out today from the National Association for Business Economics. The survey of economists also predicts this won’t be a double-dip recession where we see another downturn next year. Now, about the job market…
The predictions are not so encouraging. DS News explains what the NABE says about the 7.2 million jobs lost in the recession:
… more than half the economists surveyed don’t expect the lost jobs to be recovered until 2012 and two-fifths say it will take even longer. Unemployment is likely to peak at 10 percent before falling to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.
The high unemployment rate will continue to weigh on the economy, the survey found, according to news reports. However, it will also dampen inflation, which is expected to remain low.
The NABE says the Fed will keep interest rates near zero into next year, but then start inching them up. The housing market is about to bottom out, and home prices will gain 2% in 2010. This is a consensus forecast, mind you. Some economists are more bearish than others. I read one prediction that had unemployment peaking next Spring at 11.4%.
Have you seen anything where you are to suggest these predictions are wrong?
But if you click on nothing else today, make sure you check out this map of the jobs gained and loss in the past five years. Press play in the upper left-hand corner. It’s remarkable.
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