We’ve heard all about the tight labor market — near-record job openings and employers struggling to hire. We’ve heard about consumers — still spending pretty strongly, even though they’re grumpy about high inflation and rising interest rates. 

For seasonal retail and e-commerce hiring, it all adds up to a somewhat downbeat outlook.

So far this fall, retail stores have hired around 25% fewer seasonal workers than last year. Warehouse-and-delivery hiring is down by more than 40%. That’s according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. 

The company’s senior vice president Andy Challenger said employers are already pretty well-staffed, and they’re uncertain “about what consumer spending is going to be like this holiday season in the face of strong inflationary headwinds. They’re not going to want to be holding onto a huge number of extra employees at a high wage.”

There’s been virtually no increase in retail job postings at ZipRecruiter this fall. And when jobs come up, said chief economist Julia Pollak, “companies are competing for talent by speeding up the hiring process, stripping out any irrelevant requirements and giving people offers right away.”

Pollak said some companies are dispensing with interviews and background checks altogether, and responding to applicants with a job offer within the hour.