Global demand for oil is reaching record highs this summer. According to a report this week from the International Energy Agency, oil demand is expected to grow by about 2.2 million barrels per day this year.

That demand is driven by summer travel, energy consumption to cool homes and the production of plastics and other petrochemical materials.

But the IEA also predicts demand might not grow as fast next year, which puts the agency at odds with another entity that tracks the market: OPEC. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects the global thirst for oil to stay pretty consistent. 

So where might demand be headed in 2024?

Whether or not countries keep growing their demand for oil really depends on the health of their overall economies. And in the United States and Europe, that health is still tied to central banks’ continued fight against inflation, said Matt Smith, a lead analyst at Kpler.

“If we see these interest rate hikes really starting to slow the economy, push things into a recession, then yeah, by all means, you could see demand growth turn negative,” Smith said.

Though at least in the U.S., that hasn’t happened yet. But even if it does, and oil demand drops here and in Europe, Smith said that’s just part of the picture. “The consistent theme is that the lion’s share of oil demand growth is coming from emerging markets.”

Like from China, which is driving demand right now — for fuel, electricity and chemical manufacturing, said Ellen Wald, a fellow at the Atlantic Council. But China is not experiencing the gangbusters economic recovery that some analysts predicted earlier this year.  

“In fact, it’s kind of limping around and maybe happening in short bursts or not at all,” Wald said.

Whether or not China’s economy picks up will have a huge impact on oil markets in the months ahead, she said.

And there’s one more factor that the IEA cites in its prediction for slowing demand next year: The growth of electric vehicles. But Tom Seng, an assistant professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University, isn’t buying it.

“They’re not being sold at the clip that the manufacturers would expect, you know, we’re seeing discounts by Tesla and others,” Seng said. “And so I don’t give a lot of credence to EVs having a big impact on less demand in 2024.”

In fact, the growth of EV manufacturing could boost the demand for things made with oil, said Wald.

“So you need, you know, petrochemicals for the coating on the windows. You need it to make plastics and make things lighter,” she said.

So in the short term, it’s likely not a question of whether oil demand will grow, but by how much.