Americans are still feeling pretty grumpy about the economy, according to the latest consumer survey from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped for the fourth straight month in November to a new six-month low, which could spell trouble for the all-important holiday shopping season. But as we’ve talked about before, consumers’ feelings and how they spend haven’t always lined up in this weird post-lockdown economy.

For more than half a century, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey has been a reliable bellwether for the economy. But it’s a lot harder to read these days, said Ted Rossman, a senior analyst at Bankrate.

“It’s really interesting to see the disconnect that’s going on because consumer sentiment has been depressed for years now. It’s really never demonstrably recovered from the pandemic,” Rossman said.

Yet, through lockdowns and supply chain holdups, inflation and interest rate hikes, consumer spending has remained resilient.

“It just doesn’t feel good, because everything costs more,” Rossman said.

Consumer sentiment and inflation have improved since last year, but the high prices have been with us for a long time, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

“Those levels are not coming back down to where they were before the pandemic. We’re seeing people showing and displaying cost fatigue,” Daco said.

Plus, Daco said the job market is finally slowing down. And most households have run through their pandemic savings.

“Consumers are going to be spending, but they’re going to apply more scrutiny as to what they buy and how much they actually pay for their purchases,” Daco said.

Retailers are braced for that, but it’s tough to predict what customers will do, said Bryan Eshelman of AlixPartners.

“I think unfortunately, for most retailers, the strategy at this point is hope,” Eshelman said.

Plus bigger promotions. You might have noticed Black Friday started around Halloween this year. 

But Eshelman said consumers may not take the bait — and he includes himself.

“As my wife and I think about gifts for our children, we’re wondering, do they need anything else? And yeah, we could go and buy the obligatory Christmas gifts. … Life is short, and let’s focus on doing things together rather than buying things for each other,” Eshelman said.

Hope family time is on your Christmas list, Eshelman kids.