As of Monday morning, there are officially zero shopping days left until Christmas. (Even for you same-day shopping enthusiasts.) That means we can start taking stock of how this holiday season was economically — for consumers, retailers and their employees.

The National Retail Federation and Mastercard predicted holiday sales would be up between 3% and 4% compared to 2022. But it appears that holiday hiring hasn’t been that strong.

Bella’s Italian Bakery and Market sits at a busy intersection in Portland, Oregon. It smells of fresh-baked focaccia and spices — and it always seems to be busy. Owner Michelle Vernier usually plans holiday staffing based on the previous year’s sales.

But “it’s been a little bit difficult with the pandemic, because every year has sort of been a new year,” she said. “We were able to sort of add on 10%, which — we hope to grow our sales from last year and then look at what our current staffing situation is and try and fill in the blanks.”

With the economy in flux, a lot of retailers have been in guessing mode, said Andy Challenger at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The firm reports seasonal retail hiring was flat through November compared to last year, while transportation and warehousing, mostly for e-commerce, fell about 20%. After scrambling to meet surging consumer demand during the pandemic, Challenger said that employers are innovating. 

“We heard lots of retailers, warehouse and trucking companies talking about the struggle to hire enough people because of the labor shortage, caused them to invest in more automated technologies,” he said.

But to recruit live humans, employers have still needed to up their game. According to payroll processor ADP, entry level wages in retail have increased by 30% since before the pandemic to $15 an hour on average. 

In addition to raising wages, some retailers have been trying to improve working conditions for new hires, noted Chris Todd at payroll and HR firm UKG — which is a Marketplace underwriter.

“Being thoughtful about which shifts employees work, making sure the employee doesn’t have to close one night and open the next morning, making sure they have a break if they’ve had to deal with some particularly challenging customers,” he said.

For seasonal hiring, firm size matters as well. This fall, retailers with 1 to 19 employees hired fewer new workers, according to ADP lead data scientist Liv Wang. Those with 500 or more employees hired more. 

“The larger employer will be less prone to economic fluctuation,” she said. “Smaller employers will be more prone to change in the labor market.”

Back at Bella’s Italian Bakery, owner Michelle Vernier said that in addition to her seven current employees, the only new hire she made for the holidays this year was her 15-year-old son.

“We had everybody in place,” she said. “A couple people were not up to full time and wanted the extra hours for the holidays.”

As for her son? “He’s pretty good, yeah. I’m definitely harder on him than I am on anybody else.”

Spoken like a true entrepreneurial mother.