How’s the economy doing?
Morning Consult has released new consumer sentiment polling, and the big takeaway is that people do seem to have a much more positive outlook on the economy now than they’ve had in a couple of years. But zoom in on the data, and you’ll find that the gap between how high and low earners feel is widening.
Through good times and bad, high earners always feel better about the economy than low earners do, said Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan.
“People with higher incomes are just more equipped to handle downturns in the economy,” Hsu said.
What’s interesting is that when those downturns happen, the sentiment gap between high and low earners narrows. And it narrowed more than ever in 2022. That’s because even though inflation has had a bigger effect on low-wage workers, it’s made just about everyone feel, well, kinda crappy.
But in the last year or so, the gap has widened again. And it’s driven by the opinions of people who are better off.
“As soon as times become better, we observe that high income earners and those with a higher level of education become more optimistic about the future of the macroeconomy,” said Camelia Kuhnen, a professor of finance at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
She said that’s mostly because of stock market performance, which, by and large, was strong in 2023. The S&P 500 has been breaking records recently.
“So if I’m a high income earner, probably I have a job that comes with a 401(k). The low income earners, this is irrelevant to them, right? Maybe they don’t have exposure at all to equity,” Kuhnen said.
The stock market is not the economy. And it’s definitely not for people who don’t participate in it.
Over the years, the sentiment gap has fluctuated. But now it’s turned into the Grand Canyon. And it may stay that way for a while.
“I think there’s a question of, is this a feature of the U.S. economy, or is it a bug?” said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult.
As differences in income distribution widen, Leer said, the sentiment split is more likely to become a feature.
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