There is some dueling data on the health and well-being of the small-business economy this week: The National Federation of Independent Business found small-business owners in a downbeat mood for the 25th straight month, with their outlook for sales and growth falling in January. American Express, on the other hand, reports small-business owners turning sharply more optimistic at the beginning of 2024, with 85% satisfied with their business success.

What gives?

For the glass half full approach, “small-business owners are feeling particularly optimistic and resilient in 2024,” said Brett Sussman with American Express, which surveyed several hundred businesses with 1 to 500 employees. “This is a far cry from this past summer, when 80% cited the economy impacting their long-term confidence.”

Sussman said problems like inflation and supply chains are abating.

“Fifty percent said they’re looking to proactively expand — new locations, products, services,” he said.

And the glass half empty?

“Small-business owners are still feeling the pressures of inflation and labor shortages,” said Holly Wade at the NFIB, which surveys its members — most with 40 or fewer employees — every month.

“January did show a dramatic drop in sales expectations in the next quarter,” she said. “And the challenges in which they’re having to operate take up a lot of resources and time. They’re particularly sour on that.”

Now these are different surveys. NFIB skews to smaller small businesses, and a lot of those firms are struggling, said Alex Shvarts at fintech firm FundKite.

“We process a lot of business-funding applications, and we’ve been seeing a lot of negative sentiment. It went from ‘How do I grow my business?’ to more like ‘How do I stay afloat?'”

Shvarts said macroeconomic conditions might improve later this year, but right now, his clients are still dealing with high prices, high interest rates and a lot of stress.