We probably aren't in a recession — but these indicators will tell us if and when we are

Dec 19, 2022
Some signs are already flashing red. Job creation and consumer spending, though, are still chugging along.
“The labor market is still strong," said ZipRecruiter's Julia Pollak. But if it weakens, the U.S. economy may have already entered a recession.
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The Fed wants to bring inflation down to 2%. But why not 3%? Or 5%?

Dec 15, 2022
There's not much evidence to suggest that 2% leads to economic magic.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated the importance of the central bank's 2% inflation target. Backing off that number now could send the wrong message, some economists believe.
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Fed hikes key rate by a half-point and signals more to come

Dec 14, 2022
Though smaller than its previous three-quarter-point hikes, the move will further heighten the costs of many consumer and business loans.
One of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s biggest focuses has been the price of services, which he said are likely to remain persistently high.
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With all eyes on interest rates, the Fed's shifting balance sheet flies under the radar

Dec 14, 2022
The Fed's balance sheet is one of its devices that's managed to avoid the spotlight.
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C.
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How a “divorce” between the Treasury and Fed helped build the modern economy

Dec 13, 2022
In the 1950s, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve reached an agreement that helped create the economy we have today.
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Inflation slows again. What now?

Dec 13, 2022
Prices rose 7.1% in November compared to a year ago — less than expected.
The gas prices drivers paid at the pump dipped 2% in November.
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Inflation's "last mile" is the trickiest

Dec 12, 2022
Fighting inflation starts like a sprint, but it's a marathon. And the last few miles are hardest.
Online prices and freight rates are down, pointing toward cooling inflation. But getting the rate back down to 2% will require a cooler labor market, says economist Sarah House.
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Here's why mortgage rates have been falling

Dec 7, 2022
While the Fed has continued to hike interest rates, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped from 7.16% to 6.4%.
When there’s a big surge in investor demand for mortgage bonds, "the price goes up, the rate goes down, and that trickles through to what the homeowners will see," said Jeana Curro at Bank of America.
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Can the Fed keep inflation under control without sacrificing jobs?

Dec 2, 2022
The Federal Reserve is supposed to do both things. But Chair Jerome Powell said this week the Fed will keep raising interest rates to cool inflation, even if that pushes people out of work.
A moderator calls on members of the audience for questions for chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell during an event at the Brookings Institution, November 30, 2022 in Washington, DC.
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Is anyone who lost their job blaming the Fed?

Dec 1, 2022
About 225,000 filed unemployment claims last week. The public soured on the Fed the last time it jacked up interest rates to quell inflation.
While the public hasn't soured on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as much as it did on Paul Volcker in the '80s, a Gallup poll finds approval of the Fed slipping.
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