Do the latest job numbers point to a coming recession?

Nov 6, 2023
The number of new jobs created each month has been trending down for the past year — but there is also a good amount of positive data in the latest report.
Overall, the number of new jobs created each month has been chaotic but generally trending down for 12 months.
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Wage growth cools in October

Nov 3, 2023
Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% year-over-year in October; the rate peaked near 6% in March 2022. The slowdown in wage growth is helping the Fed wrestle inflation lower.
The rate of average hourly earnings growth slowed in October, which is exactly what the Fed hopes might further cool inflation.
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The job market might finally be returning to "normal," economists say

Oct 5, 2023
Experts are predicting a slight decrease in wage growth, a drop that get us closer to pre-pandemic rates.
New September job market data comes out Friday, and economists expect we'll see a little less payroll growth than in August.
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Temp jobs falling usually signals a recession. Maybe not this time.

Oct 5, 2023
It's probably more a sign of pandemic labor market weirdness than a coming recession.
Following an explosion of temp jobs during the pandemic, many positions were made permanent as companies scrambled to recruit and retain workers. Above, participants at a San Francisco job fair.
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Rising unemployment doesn't hit all parts of the labor force equally

Sep 14, 2023
Even a small increase in unemployment can result in disproportionate effects on marginalized groups.
As the unemployment rises, it'll be important to keep an eye on how much more it rises for vulnerable groups, says Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan.
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Labor force participation approaches pre-pandemic levels

Sep 1, 2023
The participation rate, which includes people actively looking for jobs, rose in August for those 55 and older, women, teenagers and others.
Labor force participation has been rising among women age 25 to 54 — many of whom stopped working when the pandemic complicated child care and schooling.
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It's a slow summer... for job cuts

Aug 4, 2023
People are scanning today's jobs report for signs of slower job creation and greater wage gains — as unemployment claims hover near pre-pandemic lows, and companies announce fewer layoffs.
“We’re seeing a lot of those individuals being picked up fairly quickly in medium-sized companies," said Jim McCoy with ManpowerGroup
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For public good, not for profit.

Hiring by state and local governments has bounced back big-time

Jul 7, 2023
Governing bodies have collectively added 57,000 people per month, on average, this year, outpacing previous public-sector recoveries.
State and local governments have been hiring at more than double last year's rate. Above, Philadelphia City Hall.
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Job data's all over the place, but things are still pretty good for some workers

Jul 6, 2023
ADP and other labor market signals point to continuing interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
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Women's labor force participation rate reaches an all-time high

Jun 2, 2023
Millions of women left the workforce early in the pandemic. The strong job market and flexible working conditions have brought many back.
When COVID hit, many women exited the workforce as the service sector collapsed and their children were schooled at home. Now, women's employment is bouncing back.
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