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Recession

Economists used the business cycle to predict what's next. It doesn't work so well anymore.

by Justin Ho
Apr 23, 2024
Where's the recession? Changes like the pandemic crash and government funding programs have disrupted the expansion-contraction pattern.
Daenin Arnee via Getty Images
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When will the Fed cut rates? Senators are likely to put Jay Powell on the spot when he testifies

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Mar 7, 2024
He says there's likely to be a rate cut this year, but he won't say when.
Above, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
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Business economists expect a soft landing in 2024

by Mitchell Hartman
Feb 26, 2024
The National Association for Business Economics' latest forecast predicts higher economic growth and lower unemployment.
“Over the past quarters, the prospects for a recession seem to get smaller, prospects for a soft landing larger," said Mervin Jebaraj at the University of Arkansas.
Angelia Weiss/AFP via Getty Images
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Looking for an escape, more adults are buying childhood toys

by Addie Costello
Nov 29, 2023
From Tamagotchis to Star Wars, the number of adults buying new and old versions of their childhood toys has continued to climb.
Tamagotchis and other toys from the '90s are becoming popular collectibles for adults looking to reconnect with their childhoods.
Gorlov / Getty Images Plus
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As a recession fails to materialize, some economists are changing their tune

by Justin Ho
Nov 21, 2023
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has been pointing to a slowdown for 19 months. It hasn't materialized.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
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Do the latest job numbers point to a coming recession?

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Nov 6, 2023
The number of new jobs created each month has been trending down for the past year — but there is also a good amount of positive data in the latest report.
Overall, the number of new jobs created each month has been chaotic but generally trending down for 12 months.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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Germany's economy stumbles, once again making it the "sick man of Europe"

by Leanna Byrne
Oct 26, 2023
Business activity in Germany contracted for a fourth straight month in October. Experts are labeling Europe’s largest economy the "sick man of Europe."
The International Monetary Fund expects Germany's economy to contract 0.3% this year. Above, the banking district skyline of Frankfurt.
Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
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Temp jobs falling usually signals a recession. Maybe not this time.

by Meghan McCarty Carino
Oct 5, 2023
It's probably more a sign of pandemic labor market weirdness than a coming recession.
Following an explosion of temp jobs during the pandemic, many positions were made permanent as companies scrambled to recruit and retain workers. Above, participants at a San Francisco job fair.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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Conference Board reports fall in consumer confidence

by Mitchell Hartman
Sep 27, 2023
The nonprofit business research group found that consumers think a recession is on the way, as the economy faces challenges ahead.
One thing consumers are worried about, and think could signal an oncoming recession, is high food prices.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
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An inverted yield curve usually signals recession. Is it wrong this time?

by Matt Levin
Sep 7, 2023
For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn't happened yet.
When the yield curve inverts, it indicates that bond investors are betting on a coming recession.
Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images
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