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Recession

Europe could dodge a predicted recession, thanks largely to energy policy

by Mitchell Hartman
Feb 13, 2023
Households and businesses cut consumption by 20%. A mild winter also helped. Conservation efforts and a warm winter helped.
The European economy still faces risks from Russia’s war in Ukraine, but somewhat less than a year ago when the war began, says Cornell economist Eswar Prasad.
Aris Oikonomou/AFP-Getty Images
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Wage growth is slowing down. But is there an upside for workers?

by Justin Ho
Jan 31, 2023
Wages increased 1% in Q4. Inflation is also slowing. All that could impact whether — and by how much — the Fed hikes interest rates.
Wage growth slowed to 1% in Q4, but inflation has been slowing too.
Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images
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Economists are predicting a recession. Does that really mean we'll have one?

by Kai Ryssdal and Andie Corban
Jan 30, 2023
We take a look inside the world of economic forecasting and ask whether predictions are reliable.
Economists at Wells Fargo and JPMorgan expect a recession this year but describe it as "modest" and "mild."
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Business economists seem a little more optimistic, survey finds

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Jan 23, 2023
A majority still think the country is headed for a recession. But the majority's shrinking.
A little more than half of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession, down from about two-thirds in October.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
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Why consumers are pulling back on spending

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Jan 17, 2023
A New York Fed survey shows consumers are cutting back. But inflation means they're paying more for the same stuff.
Consumer spending peaked over the summer and has been falling ever since, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Are the latest consumer price index numbers a good sign for the economy?

by Justin Ho
Jan 12, 2023
Prices were up 6.5% over the past year, well above the Fed's targets but the smallest increase since October 2021. It's a sign that inflation is easing.
Shoppers are likely noticing the moderation in food price increases, said Morning Consult's Kayla Bruun.
Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images
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Why layoffs are picking up at small businesses

by Justin Ho
Jan 4, 2023
The labor market is still pretty tight, but the smallest businesses are more vulnerable to an economic downturn.
Businesses with fewer than 10 employees tend to have a harder time building up cash to weather a recession, and may turn to layoffs as a cost-cutting measure.
fizkes/Getty Images
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A hot labor market is good, right? So why could it lead to a recession?

by Justin Ho
Jan 3, 2023
Economists say millions of unfilled jobs could limit economic growth.
"We just do not have enough people to fill all those job openings," said Iowa State professor Peter Orazem.
Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images
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Economist El-Erian calls on the Fed to start “owning their mistakes”

by Kai Ryssdal , Andie Corban and Maria Hollenhorst
Dec 20, 2022
The prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Fed is still “behind the curve” on inflation.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, blames the Fed for failing to act sooner on inflation.
Rob Kim/Getty Images
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We probably aren't in a recession — but these indicators will tell us if and when we are

by Mitchell Hartman
Dec 19, 2022
Some signs are already flashing red. Job creation and consumer spending, though, are still chugging along.
“The labor market is still strong," said ZipRecruiter's Julia Pollak. But if it weakens, the U.S. economy may have already entered a recession.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
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